WHAT THEY MEAN:

Governor Bradford remembers the first Thanksgiving in 1621:

“They [the fifty Pilgrims who had survived the first winter] begane now to gather in ye small harvest they had, and to fitte up their houses and dwellings against winter, being all well recovered in health & strenght, and had all things in good plenty; fFor as some were thus imployed in affairs abroad, others were excersised in fishing, aboute codd, & bass, & other fish, of which yey tooke good store, of which every family had their portion. All ye somer ther was no want. And now begane to come in store of foule, as winter approached, of which this place did abound when they came first (but afterward decreased by degrees). And besids water foule, ther was great store of wild Turkies, of which they tooke many, besids venison, &c. Besids, they had about a peck a meale a weeke to a person, or now since harvest, Indean corn to yt proportion. Which made many afterwards write so largly of their plenty hear to their freinds in England, which were not fained, but true reports.”

Bradford’s Pilgrims and their “some ninety” Wampanoag guests relied on the autumn fish, berries, birds, vegetables, corn, and game of early New England. Tomorrow’s Thanksgiving celebrants can pick from the same options: 21st-century New England has 30,700 farms on 3.75 million acres of land.  They sell $3.2 billion worth of produce annually, with Massachusetts bogs topping the U.S. in cranberries, Maine leading for blueberries and lobster, and Vermont for maple sugar. Native Americans likewise operate 56,000 farms and ranches (mostly in the West), producing $2.4 billion in crops and $6 billion in livestock each year. More broadly, American Thanksgivings draw in food from 1.9 million American farms and ranches, and more from the world beyond. The turkey and cranberry sauce are still mostly American birds and berries – Minnesota and North Carolina are the largest turkey-breeders – but they often find complements in Australian and Argentine beef, Thai and Ecuadoran shrimp, Irish and New Zealand butter, Mexican cilantro and avocado, South African wines and oranges, Canadian wheat and beer, Chilean berries and Peruvian vegetables, Sri Lankan tea and Colombian coffee, and West African chocolate. A bit of background to this:

Food-buying and spending: The World Trade Organization’s World Trade Statistics 2023 finds the U.S. the second-largest buyer of agricultural goods at $241 billion last year, behind China’s $285 billion and a bit above the EU’s $213 billion. (The U.K. and Japan are next at $86 billion and $84 billion.) This dazzling array of stuff looks pricy, but in a more realistic sense, it’s gotten steadily cheaper. As food-buying has “globalized,” as tariffs have fallen, and as shipping and cold-chain storage techniques have improved, Americans have spent steadily less of their money on food. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent Consumer Expenditure Survey, for example, reports that 9.8% of American family budgets now go to food — a drop of 28% since 2000, of half since the 1970s, and three-quarters over the last century.

Production and exports: And what about the producers? The 1.9 million U.S. farms and ranches top the WTO’s list of exporters with $198 billion in overseas sales last year – 1.2 billion from New England – and typically get a fifth of their income from foreign customers.  USDA’s database reports that U.S. farms and ranches annually ship out 190 million tons of food — soybeans, and wheat for Asian noodle shops, fresh vegetables for Latin America, corn for Mexican bakeries, beef and pork for the world, and 500 million pounds of turkey.  Here’s USDA’s businesslike 21st-century counterpoint to Governor Bradford:

“With U.S. agricultural output growing faster than domestic demand for many products, U.S. farmers and agricultural firms have been relying on export markets to sustain prices and revenues. As a result, U.S. agricultural exports have grown steadily over the past 25 years—reaching $174 billion in 2023, up from $57.3 billion in 1998.  The product composition of agricultural exports shifted over that 25-year span, reflecting changes in global supply and demand. Most notably, exports of consumer-oriented products—including high-value products (HVP) such as dairy products, meats, fruits, and vegetables—showed strong growth driven by increasing population and income worldwide, as well as a growing diversification of diet.”

So, with families spending less of their income on food, farmers shipping more high-value stuff abroad, and lots on the table tomorrow, we have much to be grateful for this week. We wish readers and friends a happy Thanksgiving Day.

FURTHER READING

Then & now:

Plymouth’s Pilgrim Hall Museum has the two surviving records of the first Thanksgiving, with Governor Bradford on food and Edward Winslow on Massasoit and his warriors.

The heirs of Massasoit at the Mashpee/Taunton Wampanoag Nation.

Native agriculture today:

Per USDA, 78,316 Native American producers operate 56,000 farms and ranches on 52.6 million acres of land, with $2.8 billion worth of crops and $3.4 billion in livestock annually.  The largest output is in Oklahoma and Arizona. Native American farmers are slightly younger than the average U.S. farm owner — 11% are 35 or younger and 34% over 65, as opposed to 9% below 35 and 38% above 65 for U.S. farmers in general — and are more likely to use farming as the main source of family income. A somewhat larger share of Native farm owners are women. USDA on 21st-century Native farm and ranch life.

The Inter-tribal Agricultural Council, based in Billings, Montana, promotes tribal farm and fishery exports.

And for DC residents and visitors, Mitsitam Café at the Museum of the American Indian has menus and material, as well as meals, on contemporary Native American farming and products.

Family spending on food:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey reports spending patterns by family type, income level, race and ethnicity, and more for 2023.

… and looks back over the Survey’s 130 years with figures on incomes and spending for 1901, 1918, 1934-1936, 1950, 1960, 1972-73, 1984-1985, and 1996-1997:

The Department of Agriculture looks at American farming and ag trade –

The Census of Agriculture 2022, released last February.

… a stat-snapshot of 21st-century New England farming, from berries and maple syrup to mink.

… a look at American agricultural trade and its place in farming and the rural economy.

… and the “Global Agricultural Trade System” database.

And world perspective:

The WTO’s World Trade Statistics 2024; see Tables 13 and 14 for food and ag trade export and import leaders. A quick table of top exporters:

World agricultural exports	$2,276 billion
European Union:	$268 billion
U.S.	$198 billion
Brazil	$157 billion
China	$95 billion
Canada	$88 billion
Indonesia	$59 billion
Thailand	$56 billion
Australia	$50 billion
All other	$1,305 billion

ABOUT ED

Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.

Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.

Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.

Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.

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WHAT THEY MEAN:

Exporters are the “cannon fodder” of trade wars — the unwitting front-line conscripts who lose sales, output, and jobs first when the targets retaliate. Cautiously unsealing statistics buried for a century in the 1936 edition of the Almanac of Statistical Extracts, here’s how they fared after the U.S. government’s last such venture, the “Tariff Act of 1930”:

1929	$5.24 billion
1930	$3.85 billion
1931	$2.42 billion
1932	$1.61 billion

With this experience grimly in mind, here are three perspectives on their modern descendants as of 2023:

1. Totals: The Census keeps the official records for these things, and reports that, adding it all together, Americans earned $3.07 trillion selling things to foreigners in 2023. This was 11% of U.S. GDP, down a notch from the 12% at the end of the Obama administration, and 3% of all world economic output. Using the standard-though-imperfect definitions of economic “sectors,” the single big Census number breaks down into slightly smaller ones as follows:

Manufacturers are the top exporters at $1.6 trillion. Samples include 3 million cars and trucks exiting Michigan, Alabama, South Carolina, etc., for parts abroad, along with $65 billion worth of auto parts for overseas factories and repair shops; $278 billion worth of chemicals, with Texas, Indiana, Puerto Rico, and California the largest sources; $130 billion in airplanes, drones, satellites and other aerospace; half a million microscopes and 656,000 MRI machines (California, Tennessee, Texas and Massachusetts lead for medical equipment), $107 billion worth of medicines.

Energy comes next at $324 billion, rising fast as liquefied natural gas from Texas and Louisiana replaces Russian energy in Europe.

Then come $250 billion in “business services” — an amorphous mix of things delivered mostly in digital form, ranging from architectural blueprints to software programs, legal documents, entertainment and media revenue, engineering services, and telemedicine diagnoses.

Agriculture contributes $174 billion: 17.8 million tons of wheat, 680,000 tons of almonds, and 3 million tons of pork; or in dollar terms, $4.3 billion worth of fresh fruit, $1.5 billion in wine, and $27 billion worth of soybeans. By way of context, this was nearly a third of last year’s $608 billion in gross farm income. Seafood adds another $5 billion, with Alaska, Washington, Florida, and Maine the top landing sites.

Travel services are close behind at $190 billion (visits for medical treatment, overseas student tuition, tourism in general); then add in $175 billion for financial services and $134 billion in intellectual property revenue, $98 billion in transport services, $50 billion for 17 million tons of metal ore and 3 million tons of scrap for $50 billion, and so on.

2. World Perspective: How does this look as against other large economies? Per the WTO’s World Trade Statistics 2023, the U.S.’ $3.07 trillion in total exports was the world’s second-largest total behind world behind China’s $3.76 trillion, with Germany third at $2.15 trillion, followed by the Netherlands, Japan, and France. Or, dividing things somewhat more finely, Americans are the largest exporters of farm products, energy, and services, and second to China for manufacturing.

3. At home: Taking these numbers from spreadsheets and GDP shares to daily life, the Census reports 278,000 American exporting businesses. Their joint deep dive into these firms, in partnership with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, identifies 161,000 by owner type — 21,626 women-owned firms, 1,139 African-American, 96 Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, 8,078 veteran-owned, 14,947 large publicly held and other “unclassifiable” companies — altogether employing 48 million people. The striking characteristic is their especially high pay: $80,536 in payroll per worker, nearly 50% above the $54,474 per worker for non-exporters. On the land, meanwhile, last year’s export share of farm income may be unusually high. But USDA notes that farmers and ranchers expect in any typical year to earn 20% of their income from overseas, nearly double the 11% average across the economy.

In sum: The export sector is quite large at $3 trillion. It pays workers well, is much more concentrated in goods production and high-end services than the U.S. economy as a whole, and is an especially important part of the American rural economy. Keep these things in mind in the year ahead.

FURTHER READING

Then:

From the Census archives, the Almanac of Statistical Abstracts for 1936 (see part 8 for the trade data).

And a look at the Tariff Act of 1930 (“Smoot-Hawley” for its authors, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Reed Smoot and House Ways and Means boss Willis Hawley).

And for the bigger picture, Kindleberger’s The World in Depression, 1929-1939.

Now: 

Census trade data.

… counts of exporting and importing companies.

… and jointly with BEA, the deep dive on goods exporting companies, by size, market, race/ethnicity/gender of owners, and more.

U.S. Department of Agriculture briefs on ag trade.

The Energy Information Administration on the state of U.S. energy trade.

The Commerce Department’s International Trade Administration has state-by-state exports with products – from fish and semiconductors to tractors, fabric, medicine and sports equipment – and markets.

… and some more deep-dive work from the ITA statisticians finds 5.1 million of the U.S.’ 13.0 million manufacturing jobs “supported by exports”.

And international perspective: 

The WTO’s World Trade Statistics 2023 places the U.S. in world context.

ABOUT ED

Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.

Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.

Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank ProgressiveEconomy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.

Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.

Read the full email and sign up for the Trade Fact of the Week.