China’s main space policy goal is to usurp the United States’ leadership position in space by 2045 — and it increasingly looks like a goal they’ll meet. This development would have dire implications for America’s national security, global position, and economic growth. Indeed, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has stated, “Chinese space activities will increasingly erode the national security, commercial, and global influence advantages that the United States has accrued from its leadership in space.”
This erosion of American leadership could occur in the next five years as China is on track to reach parity with United States space power in most areas by 2030. In some areas, like positioning, navigation, and timing (the American Global Positioning Service, for instance), China already has superior capabilities.2 However, in most areas, like low-Earth orbit satellite broadband service and rendezvous and proximity operations, China still lags the United States, though China is working expeditiously to change that status quo.
Yet, Congress has not yet taken substantial action to address this, nor did the Biden administration. There were a number of pieces of space legislation introduced last Congress, but there was only one bill that passed into law that addresses this issue and it was narrowly focused. Space has a long-standing reputation for having strong bipartisan support. Yet we are seeing Republicans double down on their support for the sector while Democrats have gone quiet and focused on maintaining the status quo rather than encouraging the exciting innovations in this arena. The Trump administration firings have touched NASA, but to date, they have been glancing blows rather than the sucker punches experienced by other agencies. That said, while it remains to be seen how Trump’s tariffs on items like aluminum that are vital to the space industry, potential plans to slash NASA’s budget 20% and fights with nations that are traditional United States partners will play out for space, the impact is unlikely to be positive. Democrats must start to show up to the conversation and push for change via thoughtful, pragmatic solutions if the nation is to maintain competitiveness in the space domain.
There is still time to take action to invest in U.S. competitiveness and maintain American space leadership. This report will outline why space leadership matters to the nation, the state of play for strategically significant space capabilities, and recommend solutions for turning things around. These solutions must be undertaken in tandem as there is not a silver bullet. Experts believe China’s space investments may have already surpassed the United States’ when adjusted for purchasing power parity, though given the general opacity of Chinese government spending estimates that exact figure varies. Increased investment in targeted portions of American space programs remains vital, but more money alone won’t be enough. We must:
