Upper-middle income countries 78%
High-income countries 73%
United States 67%
World 61%
Lower-middle income countries 55%
Low-income countries 19%
Source: Ourworldindata.org for percentages by income level. World Bank definitions for these classifications are above $13,205 in Gross National Income per capita for ‘high-income, $4,206 – $13,204 for upper-middle income, $1,086 – $4,205 for lower-middle income, and under $1,085 for low-income.
The world’s first COVID vaccine jab, delivered by nurse May Parsons, went to a 91-year-old Margaret Keenan at University Hospital Coventry in England, on December 8, 2020. That was 331 days after the first publication of the coronavirus’ DNA sequence. With another 589 days have gone by since Ms. Keenan’s first shot, where do we stand?
According to the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Information Center, health care providers like Ms. Parsons have given 11.84 billion vaccine shots worldwide. This has “fully vaccinated” 4.84 billion people, or 61% of the world’s population. (“Fully vaccinated” by JHU’s definition: two mRNA shots or one Johnson and Johnson shot.) A study last month conducted by the British medical journal The Lancet calculates that these vaccinations have cut worldwide COVID-19 deaths by a range from 14.4 million to 19.8 million, in the context of an epidemic of 565 million known cases and 6.4 million known deaths. Each day the total rises a bit, as providers administer about 9 million more shots. This is a remarkable, even stunning, achievement of government and private-sector science, transnational manufacturing and logistics, and health-provider delivery. But it remains an achievement with gaps; and these may grow more important as new variants emerge and immunity conferred through early vaccination fades.
One gap is that of income. People in rich and upper-middle income countries are somewhat more likely to be vaccinated than people in lower-middle-income countries, and low-income countries are far behind both. Low-income countries also appear to be relatively more reliant on Chinese- and Russian-produced vaccines that offer lower levels of protection than U.S./European vaccines. There are also some gaps by region – vaccination rates appear relatively high in South America, East Asia, ASEAN, the Pacific Islands and western Europe, and relatively low in southern and eastern Europe, the Middle East, the Caribbean, South Asia, and Africa. These general patterns have many exceptions — low-income Asian countries including Cambodia and Bhutan are near the top of the vaccination-rate tables, for example — and some countries in very similar circumstances report quite different results. As an extreme case, the world-low vaccination rate in JHU’s table is Burundi’s 0.1% of the population (13,800 of 12 million people); next-door Rwanda is at 65%, essentially the same as the United States.
The U.S. in a way mirrors the international pattern, with vaccination rates by state varying widely, and modestly correlating with state median income levels, political divisions, and larger geography. New England, where vaccination rates are in the 75% to 84% range, is comparable to the rates in Japan, France, and Australia, and taken as a distinct region would be near the top of the high-income spectrum. D.C., Hawaii, Puerto Rico, New York and New Jersey are also in the top ten. The “least vaccinated” group includes Wyoming and a set of deep South states; here, rates are in the 51%-55% range and at par with lower-middle income countries such as Tajikistan, Bolivia, and Honduras (and upper-middle income Russia). Explanations for relatively high U.S. state rates of vaccination may include lower public “vaccine hesitance”, strong outreach from state governments, high health-provider-to-population ratios and low levels of uninsured people. Explanations for lower rates, the reverse.
A table illustrates, with vaccination levels in sample countries and U.S. states drawn from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Information Center:
Much, then, achieved. But with 3 billion still unvaccinated around the world, mortality counts still at 15,000 weekly, new variants emerging every few months, and many early vaccination recipients needing booster shots, much still to do.
* Using the District’s own 77% count; JHU has a perplexing 100% rate for D.C.
The Lancet calculates that vaccinations have saved between 14.4 million and 19.8 million lives
And the Royal College of Nursing on Parsons, Keenan, and the first COVID shot.
Data on vaccination rates, new cases, death rates by country and U.S. state, etc.
Ourworldindata.org has an interactive site allowing selection of particular countries and regions.
Johns Hopkins U. Coronavirus Information Center reports 6.4 million deaths among 560 million cases since December 2020. The mortality count has diminished to a still-high 12,000 deaths per week worldwide, from levels in the range of 50,000-100,000 deaths per week from mid-2020 through late 2021.
At home:
Rhode Island’s 84% vaccination rate is the highest in the U.S.
Washington, D.C., is at 77% by its own count; the JHU list somehow credits the District with a 100% vaccination rate. Either way, one of the top U.S. vaccination performers. Mayor Muriel Bowser explains vax requirements.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 site.
Overseas:
USAID outlines its COVID aid program in low- and middle-income countries.
The WTO explains the state of debate on intellectual property rules and COVID.
The African Union outlines vaccination trends and policies in Africa.
The Rwanda Biomedical Centre has Q&A on vaccination.
And the OECD reviews the supply chains that produce and deliver vaccines.
Ed Gresser is Vice President and Director for Trade and Global Markets at PPI.
Ed returns to PPI after working for the think tank from 2001-2011. He most recently served as the Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics at the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR). In this position, he led USTR’s economic research unit from 2015-2021, and chaired the 21-agency Trade Policy Staff Committee.
Ed began his career on Capitol Hill before serving USTR as Policy Advisor to USTR Charlene Barshefsky from 1998 to 2001. He then led PPI’s Trade and Global Markets Project from 2001 to 2011. After PPI, he co-founded and directed the independent think tank Progressive Economy until rejoining USTR in 2015. In 2013, the Washington International Trade Association presented him with its Lighthouse Award, awarded annually to an individual or group for significant contributions to trade policy.
Ed is the author of Freedom from Want: American Liberalism and the Global Economy (2007). He has published in a variety of journals and newspapers, and his research has been cited by leading academics and international organizations including the WTO, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund. He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a Master’s Degree in International Affairs from Columbia Universities and a certificate from the Averell Harriman Institute for Advanced Study of the Soviet Union.
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